News report on Tajikistan's EEU accession
Tajikistan’s Accession to Eurasian Economic Union.[1]
Last November, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov emphasized that Russia was still interested in Tajikistan’s accession to Eurasian Union. This is not the first time when a high-ranking member of the Russian government focuses on Tajikistan. In fact, since 2014, Russia has been actively trying to bring Tajikistan into the union. Meanwhile, the government of Tajikistan has been only prevaricating. Initially, it was claiming that the country was not ready to join the union but later began stressing the need to evaluate Armenian and Kyrgyz experience before making the final decision. Hence, the Russo-Tajik impasse on this issue is not being resolved.
The dynamics of international relations in the region raises an interesting question - what drives the integration process in Eurasia. According to the neofunctionalist spillover, integration in one sector puts pressure to integrate in other areas as a condition to reach integration in that particular sector.[2] In this process, non-state actors, such as different interest groups, are extremely crucial as they are the ones to exert pressure. If neofunctionalism is considered to offer a limited explanation for the European integration, then it is even more so in the context of the Eurasian Union. The main drivers of integration in Eurasia are national governments, which decide on pace and depth of integration as in (liberal) intergovernmentalist theory.[3] The government of Tajikistan has some valid concerns for not joining the Eurasian Union. In the 1990s, Eastern European countries clearly saw the benefits of joining the European Union, thus motivated to meet the Copenhagen criteria.[4] In contrast, the Eurasian Union and Russia could not clearly articulate the benefits for Tajikistan. It is true that Tajik migrants in Russia have to go through many bureaucratic procedures before obtaining a work permit. The membership in the Eurasian Union is supposed to make the integration process of Tajik migrants in the Russian labor market much faster and easier. From this point of view, the Tajik government should be interested. However, last fall, after having a conflict with the President of Kyrgyzstan, Nazarbayev put in place restrictions on the Kazakh-Kyrgyz border, which basically closed for Kyrgyz goods and migrants an access to the Kazakhstani and Eurasian market.[5] This action on the part of Kazakhstan had consequences for the reputation of the Eurasian Union in the eyes of Tajiks. In addition to uncertainty in benefits, an equally important concern for a small country of Tajikistan is whether its sovereignty and rights will be respected by bigger members with more developed economies, especially Russia. Other candidates such as Moldova and Uzbekistan have the same concern. Moreover, as the Kazakh-Kyrgyz dispute demonstrated, institutions of the Eurasian Union are not very effective in resolving conflicts between the member states.
Nevertheless, given the pressure from above and its economic dependence, Tajikistan will join the union, if not today, then tomorrow. The bigger question is whether the Russian-led Eurasian Union will not collapse in the aftermath of the Putin’s and Nazarbayev’s eras.
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References
Bache, Ian, George, Stephen and Bulmer, Simon. 2011. “Theories of European Integration,” in Politics in the European Union. Oxford University Press.
Falyahov, Rustem. 2018. “The collapse of the empire: the Eurasian Union follows the path of the USSR” Gazeta. Available at https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2017/12/25/11535446.shtml?updated
Kary, Kuanishbek. 2017. “Is it possible for Tajikistan to join the EEU?” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Available at https://rus.azattyq.org/a/tajikistan-eaes-vozmozhnost-vstuplenia/28877387.html
McCormick, John. 2014. “The Evolution of the EU,” in Understanding the European Union: A Concise Introduction. Basingstoke, Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan.
[1] Kary, Kuanishbek. 2017. “Is it possible for Tajikistan to join the EEU?” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Available at https://rus.azattyq.org/a/tajikistan-eaes-vozmozhnost-vstuplenia/28877387.html
[2] Bache, Ian, George, Stephen and Bulmer, Simon. 2011. “Theories of European Integration,” in Politics in the European Union. Oxford University Press.
[3] Ibid.
[4]McCormick, John. 2014. “The Evolution of the EU,” in Understanding the European Union: A Concise Introduction. Basingstoke, Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan.
[5] Falyahov, Rustem. 2018. “The collapse of the empire: the Eurasian Union follows the path of the USSR” Gazeta. Available at https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2017/12/25/11535446.shtml?updated